How reliable is this forecast?
How reliable is this forecast?
Some weather situations and developments are easier to forecast than others. The so-called Forecast Reliability indicates our confidence in the forecast as a whole. Please note: a high Forecast Reliability does not mean that an especially skilled forecaster was at work, but that the weather situation is “stable” in the sense of predictable.
What are the consequences for the user?
A Reliability Index below 30% should be considered as low. The forecasted type of weather conforms to the most plausible of all possible scenarios, but it is not advisable to use this forecast for the planning of activities which depend on a certain weather situation. Please consult the subsequent forecasts.
A Reliability Index between 30 and 70% counts as average. The forecast can be used as the basis for planning, but an alternative strategy should be prepared.
A Reliability Index above 70% should be considered as high. The forecast can be taken at face value, even though surprises can never be totally excluded.
